Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
